Cocoa demand may exceed production by 1 million metric tons by 2020, creating a shortage of as much as 25 percent of the current global supply, according to Chicago- based Blommer Chocolate Co.

Consumption of the chocolate ingredient is estimated to rise by nearly 30 percent in the next 10 years, the company, which according to its website is the largest cocoa processor in North America, said in a statement distributed by PRNewswire today. Growth will be driven by rising population and rapid development in China, India and Brazil, Blommer Chocolate said.

Armajaro Trading Group Ltd., a London- based supplier of cocoa, sugar and coffee, is investing $1 million over three years to increase production of fine cocoa beans in Ecuador, the largest producer of the variety.

Ecuador accounts for more than half of the world’s supply of fine cocoa, according to the International Cocoa Organization in London. While cocoa production in the country jumped 86 percent over the past 10 years, a 2007 ICCO study shows the share of fine beans fell to just under 5 percent of global output from about 50 percent at the start of the century.

Global cocoa bean processing this season will rise by 2.4 percent, the smallest gain in three years, according to Macquarie Group Ltd.

Bean grindings, an indication of demand, will reach 4 million metric tons in the 2011-12 marketing year started in October, the bank estimated in a report e-mailed today. Cocoa processing fell 6 percent in 2008-09 as global economies entered the worst recession since World War II, the bank said.

Cameroon, Africa’s fourth-biggest cocoa producer, revised export figures for the beans in February, changing the data to show an increase of 0.4 percent from a year earlier.

Shipments in the month were unchanged at 9,702 metric tons. For the same period of the previous year, exports were 9,662 tons, according to the Cocoa and Coffee Board.Earlier, the Douala-based board said the data showed the February figure more than tripled from a year earlier. No reason was given for the change in today’s e-mailed report.

A total of 159,494 tons has been exported since the start of the season, compared with 183,665 tons shipped in the previous year, according to the report.