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E-Mini S&P 500: Top Or Ready To Pop? PDF Print E-mail
Written by DeWayne Reeves of SeekingAlpha.com   
Wednesday, 15 February 2012 09:50

The E-Mini S&P 500 again has backed off from the $1353.00 zone. The market has risen without a great deal of substance as the US recovery is slow and the Eurozone crisis is far from over. Monday, US Retail Sales increased by 0.4 % in January after a flat December. The disappointing report may have been partly due to the auto industry's lackluster sales. Business Inventories, tracks the dollar amount of inventories held by retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers across the nation, had a 0.4% increase in stockpiles after a 0.3% reading last month. Analysts had forecast 0.5%.

The sales portion of the report advanced by 0.7%, which combined with the inventory numbers determines the productivity. The US unemployment rate hit 8.3 % reflecting a modest recovery, but still the figure is high. Over the years it has ranged from 3.% to 9.7%. The National Federation of Independent Business, the ratings agency of small business sentiment, reports an increase to 93.9 in January from 93.8 in the preceding month of its optimism index. The Nielsen Survey, a global consumer confidence information company reports a rise in consumer confidence in the US and China. The trade gap with China has narrowed to $23.1 billion from $26.9 billion as imports have fallen off as of late. The US has a trade deficit that has risen to a six-month high.

The reports from Germany has shown that economic sentiment has increased to 5.4 from negative 21.6 in January exceeding all analyst's expectations. Moody's credit rating agency has downgraded six Eurozone nations including Spain and Italy. Warnings were also issued to Britain, Austria and France. The meeting of the Euro officials Tuesday in Brussels has been transformed into a conference call to tie up the loose ends on the $130 billion euro Greek bailout

. Greece may need further budget cuts as the troika would like to see an additional $325 million euros worth in 2012 with debt sustainability analysis to be sure that the structured plans may set the course for years to come. The next meeting is February 20. There are great concerns that Greece may not adhere to the austerity measures and simply take the bailout funds.

Spain may be vulnerable to sanctions by the European Union officials as its deficit figures are not in-line with the reform measures. Italy had a well-received auction with demand and lower yields in which $6.0 billion euros of government bonds were sold. The European Central Bank had put about a half a trillion euros worth of cheap loans in the market in December. At the end of this month, they may be repeating the action at the three-year cash tender slated for February 29th. The E-Mini S&P 500 climbed to its current level without a healthy retracement. Retracements are a necessary part of a healthy market. Seek medical help if you suffer from delusions of grandeur.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 15 February 2012 02:55
 

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